Event Forecast
Every forecast here is a backtest: it was computed after the event, with the model refit using only the results available at that stage. None was posted in advance. Table cells: >50% >25% >12.5% ≤12.5%. See methodology.
Every forecast here is a backtest: it was computed after the event, with the model refit using only the results available at that stage. None was posted in advance. Table cells: >50% >25% >12.5% ≤12.5%. See methodology.