Releases

• 19th June 2026, 3:59pm NZST
  • Release 2.7
  • World Climbing Series Innsbruck 2026 women: the semi-final and final are added, and the after-semis forecast (the final predicted from the eight finalists, refit on the semi results) together with the result and its prediction-performance scorecard are now live at /boulder/. The after-semis forecast favoured Erin McNeice at about a 32 per cent chance of the win; the title went to Annie Sanders, the forecast’s third pick, with McNeice second and Oceania Mackenzie third. The forecast named two of the three medallists. The men’s event is still underway, so the men’s after-semis forecast follows later.
  • Rankings and athlete pages now run through the Innsbruck final for the women, the men remaining through qualification. With the season refit the displayed women’s grades move by about a tenth of a grade: Annie Sanders rises to fourth after the win, and Melody Sekikawa, out in the semi-final, slips to fifth behind Oriane Bertone.
  • Correction: the Prague 2026 after-semis forecasts (both genders, released on the 6th and 8th of June) were refit with a diffuse prior in error rather than the intended previous-season reversion, which displayed their grades about six tenths of a grade low. Those grades are now corrected; the probabilities, results and scorecards were unaffected.
• 18th June 2026, 8:55am NZST
  • Release 2.6
  • World Climbing Series Innsbruck 2026, after qualification: the post-qualification forecast is now live at /boulder/ for both men and women, refit on the qualification results and conditioned on the twenty-four semi-finalists, simulating the semi-final and final. Erin McNeice heads the women’s field at about a 28 per cent chance of the win, ahead of Oriane Bertone and Melody Sekikawa; Sorato Anraku heads the men’s at about 39 per cent, clear of Dohyun Lee, with Colin Duffy, Rei Kawamata and Hannes Van Duysen close behind. The pre-event forecast placed seventeen of the twenty-four women and eighteen of the twenty-four men in the semi-final; its clearest miss was Mejdi Schalck, the men’s pre-event number two, who did not qualify.
  • Rankings and athlete pages now run through Innsbruck qualification for both genders. With the season refit the displayed grades move by about a tenth of a grade and ranks change little; among the women Melody Sekikawa edges ahead of Oriane Bertone for third.
• 17th June 2026, 5:52pm NZST
  • Release 2.5
  • World Climbing Series Innsbruck 2026 men: the pre-event forecast is now live at /boulder/, again posted before qualification began (7:52am local in Innsbruck). It is seeded from the official qualification draw (two groups of 47) and simulates qualification, semi-final and final, top twelve per group to the semi. Sorato Anraku heads the field at better than a 30 per cent chance of the win; Group B is the deeper draw, with Mejdi Schalck, Dohyun Lee, Colin Duffy and Rei Kawamata its clear top four. Both twelfth-place cuts are near coin-flips.
• 17th June 2026, 5:33pm NZST
  • Release 2.4
  • World Climbing Series Innsbruck 2026 women: the pre-event forecast is now live at /boulder/, posted before qualification began (the morning of the 17th in Innsbruck, 7:33am local). It is seeded from the official qualification draw (groups of 41 and 40) and simulates qualification, semi-final and final. Each group sends its top twelve to the semi-final. Erin McNeice and Oriane Bertone head the field; both twelfth-place cuts land on near coin-flips, around one chance in two. The men’s forecast follows.
• 8th June 2026
  • Release 2.3
  • World Climbing Series Prague 2026 women: semi-final and final added, with the after-semis forecast (the final predicted from the eight finalists, refit on the semi results) and the result plus prediction-performance scorecard now live at /boulder/. This completes the staged forecast for both genders.
  • Rankings and athlete pages now run through the Prague final for both men and women (previously through qualification). With the season refit the men’s number one shifts after the Prague result, moving displayed men’s grades by about a tenth of a grade; women’s grades move by about a hundredth, and ranks are essentially unchanged.
• 6th June 2026
  • Release 2.2
  • World Climbing Series Prague 2026 men: semi-final and final added, with the after-semis forecast (the final predicted from the eight finalists, refit on the semi results) and the result plus prediction-performance scorecard now live at /boulder/.
  • Forecasts now publish per gender, so a round posts as soon as that gender finishes; the women’s Prague semi-final and final follow later.
• 5th June 2026
  • Release 2.1
  • Multi-stage event forecasts on /boulder/: each event is forecast before it starts, then re-run after qualification (and after the semi-final as the rounds happen), refit on the latest results and conditioned on who actually advanced.
  • A prediction-performance panel scores each stage as the rounds resolve: how many of the cut it called, the Brier score of its probabilities, and the skill over a base-rate forecast.
  • Adds World Climbing Series Prague 2026 qualification.
• 1st June 2026
  • Release 2.0
  • New competition bouldering site at /boulder/, built on the sequential attempt-count model: it uses each climber’s tops, zones and attempt counts, not the result alone.
  • Covers 2021 to 2026: climber ratings with credible intervals, per-boulder competition grades, and forward forecasts for upcoming events.
  • The 2008 to 2026 archive under the legacy dynamic Bradley-Terry model remains available at /competition-climbing/.
• 25th May 2026
  • Release 1.11
  • Full data set from 2008 to 25th May 2026, up to and including World Climbing Series Bern 2026.
  • men: 19 years; 141 events; 514 rounds; 2290 boulder problems; 1588 competitors
  • women: 19 years; 141 events; 493 rounds; 2188 boulder problems; 1168 competitors
• 21st May 2026
  • Release 1.10
  • Full data set from 2008 to 21st May 2026, up to and including World Climbing Europe Series Liptovsky Mikulas 2026.
  • men: 19 years; 140 events; 510 rounds; 2272 boulder problems; 1585 competitors
  • women: 19 years; 140 events; 489 rounds; 2170 boulder problems; 1166 competitors
• 5th May 2026
  • Release 1.9
  • Full data set from 2008 to 5th May 2026, up to and including the 2026 World Climbing Series in Keqiao.
  • Multi-tier event model: route-grade priors now carry separate offsets for World Cup, Europe Series, and Continental Cup tiers, replacing the prior binary classification.
  • men: 19 years; 139 events; 507 rounds; 2259 boulder problems; 1574 competitors
  • women: 19 years; 139 events; 486 rounds; 2157 boulder problems; 1157 competitors
• 3rd Oct 2025
  • Release 1.8
  • Full data set from 2008 to 3rd Oct 2025, up to and including 2025 World Championship in Seoul.
  • men: 18 years; 137 events; 500 rounds; 2228 boulder problems; 1546 competitors
  • women: 18 years; 137 events; 479 rounds; 2126 boulder problems; 1131 competitors
• 5th July 2025
  • Release 1.7
  • Full data set from 2008 to 5th July 2025, up to and including Innsbruck 2025 World Cup.
  • men: 18 years; 136 events; 496 rounds; 2210 boulder problems; 1542 competitors
  • women: 18 years; 136 events; 475 rounds; 2108 boulder problems; 1124 competitors
• 16th June 2025
  • Release 1.6
  • Full data set from 2008 to 16th June 2025, up to and including Bern 2025 World Cup.
  • men: 18 years; 135 events; 492 rounds; 2192 boulder problems; 1534 competitors
  • women: 18 years; 135 events; 471 rounds; 2090 boulder problems; 1119 competitors
• 14th June 2025
  • Release 1.5
  • Full data set from 2008 to 14th June 2025, up to and including Prague 2025 World Cup (now with all three 2025 European Cups).
  • men: 18 years; 134 events; 488 rounds; 2174 boulder problems; 1532 competitors
  • women: 18 years; 134 events; 467 rounds; 2072 boulder problems; 1119 competitors
• 31st May 2025
  • Release 1.4
  • Full data set from 2008 to 31st May 2025, up to and including Salt Lake City 2025 World Cup.
  • men: 18 years; 130 events; 475 rounds; 2114 boulder problems; 1473 competitors
  • women: 18 years; 130 events; 455 rounds; 2016 boulder problems; 1072 competitors
• 4th October 2024
  • Release 1.3
  • Full data set from 2008 to Oct 4th 2024, up to and including Seoul 2024 World Cup.
  • men: 17 years; 127 events; 464 rounds; 2065 boulder problems; 1443 competitors
  • women: 17 years; 127 events; 445 rounds; 1972 boulder problems; 1053 competitors
• 30th September 2024
  • Release 1.2
  • Full data set from 2008 to Sept 30th 2024, including all qualification group assignments
  • men: 17 years; 126 events; 460 rounds; 2047 boulder problems; 1434 competitors
  • women: 17 years; 126 events; 441 rounds; 1954 boulder problems; 1046 competitors
• 7th May 2024
  • Release 1.1
  • Full data set from 2008 to May 6th 2024, including all qualification group assignments.
  • men: 17 years; 123 events; 448 rounds; 1993 boulder problems; 1402 competitors
  • women: 17 years; 123 events; 429 rounds; 1900 boulder problems; 1030 competitors
• 7th August 2023
  • Release 1.0.1
  • Now includes bouldering results for Bern World Championship 2023
  • men: 16 years; 121 events; 441 rounds; 1961 boulder problems; 1379 competitors
  • women: 16 years; 121 events; 422 rounds; 1869 boulder problems; 1012 competitors
• 30th July 2023
  • Release 1.0
  • Full data set from 2008 to July 2023, including all qualification group assignments.
  • men: 16 years; 120 events; 437 rounds; 1943 boulder problems; 1368 competitors
  • women: 16 years; 120 events; 418 rounds; 1851 boulder problems; 1004 competitors