AscentStats
Welcome to AscentStats
We build statistical models and software tools for climbing analytics.
2026 season opens: Kaunas and Keqiao
Sorato Anraku and Zélia Avezou won the World Climbing Series opener in Keqiao on May 1; Sam Avezou and Lina Funa took the Europe Series opener in Kaunas a week earlier. The two Avezous are siblings. Janja Garnbret returned to competition with a 0.2-point silver behind Zélia.
The 2026 fit also introduces a categorical event-tier model, with separate route-grade offsets estimated per tier. The data so far suggests Europe Series routes have played roughly 125 ELO (men) or 225 ELO (women) easier than World Cup routes.
Competition climbing data science
We have analysed the last 19 years (2008–2026) of IFSC bouldering competitions using a full Bayesian dynamic Bradley-Terry model to find out which climbers are the most skilful, and which boulder problems have been the most difficult. Check out our analyses and elo rankings for climbers and routes here.
Recent Posts
Kaunas and Keqiao 2026: event tiers and the new model
The 2026 season opens with two events one week apart, one a tier below the other. We use the contrast to motivate a change in the Bayesian model: route-grade priors now carry separate offsets per e...
Seoul 2025: World Championships conclude a record-breaking season
Garnbret and Anraku claim gold through final-boulder drama while Dohyun Lee's lead victory and Melina Costanza's breakthrough bronze complete a season of statistical extremes.
Innsbruck 2025: Garnbret returns, Anraku makes history, and Japan's depth problem
Janja Garnbret's victorious return couldn't overshadow Sorato Anraku's historic achievement: the first male climber to break 3000 ELO. Meanwhile, breakout stars and Japan's embarrassment of riches ...
Bern 2025: Heartbreak and breakthroughs as Pan claims maiden gold
Dohyun Lee's semifinal masterclass couldn't translate to gold as Yufei Pan's emotional breakthrough victory reshapes the men's standings. Meanwhile, Erin McNeice makes history as the first British ...
Prague 2025: Ondra's farewell, French triumph, and the hardest boulder ever set?
Adam Ondra's emotional goodbye meets the potentially hardest competition boulder ever set. Meanwhile, Mejdi Schalck ends Sorato's golden run as the Big Three continue their dominance.
FlashGrade
FlashGrade is a mathematical grading system for climbers! It leverages probabilistic data modeling to accurately assess the skill level of climbers based on their ascent data.
Adam Ondra’s bouldering flash grade
We applied the flash grade model to Adam Ondra’s bouldering ascent data on 8a.nu. Check out the results.
FlashGrade tool
We have developed a simple experimental tool that allows climbers to input their ascent data (from thecrag.com) and estimate their climbing ability. Currently it only uses the simple Bradley-Terry model, but a version that uses the dynamic Bradley-Terry model is under development.
Cumulative Performance Grade
The cumulative performance grade is a universal index of climbing performance over multiple ascents that weights each ascent proportional to the expected difficulty compared with other ascents.