AscentStats
Welcome to AscentStats
We build statistical models and software tools for climbing analytics.
The 2026 season in review
Sorato Anraku won five of the six World Climbing Series stops and is the clear men's number one, with the next five climbers too close to separate. Janja Garnbret ranks first for the women on a single event, while Erin McNeice and Oriane Bertone lead among those who contested the full season.
Across eight competitions our forecasts beat a base rate at every stage, with the Salt Lake City men's event the clear miss.
Competition bouldering (version 2.0)
Our boulder analysis has been rebuilt on a new sequential model that reads each climber’s tops, zones and the number of attempts behind them, rather than the result alone. From that it estimates a rating for every climber, a competition grade for every boulder, and forward forecasts for upcoming events. It covers the World Cup and World Series seasons from 2021 to 2026.
Boulder rankings, grades and forecasts (v2.0)
The earlier 2008 to 2026 analysis, built on the previous dynamic Bradley-Terry model, is preserved under the old model.
Recent Posts
The 2026 boulder season: what the data can and cannot say
One clear men's number one, a women's order that depends on how you count one event, and a forecast that did well on average and badly in Salt Lake City.
Bern 2026: Anraku again, and a first gold for Mackenzie
Sorato Anraku won a thin men's final in Bern; in Janja Garnbret's absence, Oceania Mackenzie took her first World Climbing Series gold. Dohyun Lee and Tomoa Narasaki both went out in the semi.
Kaunas and Keqiao 2026: event tiers and the new model
The 2026 season opens with two events one week apart, one a tier below the other. We use the contrast to motivate a change in the Bayesian model: route-grade priors now carry separate offsets per e...
Seoul 2025: World Championships conclude a record-breaking season
Garnbret and Anraku claim gold through final-boulder drama while Dohyun Lee's lead victory and Melina Costanza's breakthrough bronze complete a season of statistical extremes.
Innsbruck 2025: Garnbret returns, Anraku makes history, and Japan's depth problem
Janja Garnbret's victorious return couldn't overshadow Sorato Anraku's historic achievement: the first male climber to break 3000 ELO. Meanwhile, breakout stars and Japan's embarrassment of riches ...
FlashGrade
FlashGrade is a mathematical grading system for climbers! It leverages probabilistic data modeling to accurately assess the skill level of climbers based on their ascent data.
Adam Ondra’s bouldering flash grade
We applied the flash grade model to Adam Ondra’s bouldering ascent data on 8a.nu. Check out the results.
FlashGrade tool
We have developed a simple experimental tool that allows climbers to input their ascent data (from thecrag.com) and estimate their climbing ability. Currently it only uses the simple Bradley-Terry model, but a version that uses the dynamic Bradley-Terry model is under development.
Cumulative Performance Grade
The cumulative performance grade is a universal index of climbing performance over multiple ascents that weights each ascent proportional to the expected difficulty compared with other ascents.